With Mexico set to dominate the U.S. avocado market in the coming months, industry experts forecast consistent supply and recovery in the foodservice sector.

Despite a tumultuous first half of the year in the avocado market, industry experts, including Peter Shore, Vice President of Production Management for Calavo Growers Inc., based in Santa Paula, CA, are optimistic about a stable marketing environment for the remainder of 2024. Shore’s outlook, shared in a conversation with The Produce News, reflects the anticipation of a consistent supply and potentially steady pricing for the rest of the year. However, he also acknowledged the ever-present possibility of unforeseen factors that could disrupt these expectations.

As of late July, Shore observed that both California and Peru were rapidly reducing their weekly avocado shipments, leaving Mexico poised to dominate the market for the last four months of the year. This shift aligns with industry reports indicating that Mexico’s 2024/2025 avocado crop, which spans from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, is expected to mirror the 2023/24 crop in both yield and quality. This consistency is central to Shore’s forecast of a predictable supply chain for the rest of the year, with the U.S. market capable of absorbing approximately 55 million pounds of avocados each week. Shore anticipates that shipments will frequently meet this demand during the final third of the year.

However, Shore did caution that August could bring some fluctuations in supply as Mexico transitions from its summer crop to its regular harvest. Additionally, California’s avocado production, which has exceeded initial estimates by over 50 percent, may continue to surprise the market with its output for a few more weeks.

Calavo Growers’ production trends are closely following the broader industry pattern, with the company winding down its harvests in California and Peru. According to Shore, the Mexican states of Jalisco and Michoacan will serve as Calavo’s primary avocado suppliers for the next five months. “Jalisco is harvesting right now for other export markets, and soon that fruit will be coming to the U.S. market,” Shore mentioned.

Shore’s comments came just before he was set to participate in the annual International Fresh Produce Association Foodservice Conference in Monterey, CA. He emphasized the significance of the foodservice sector to Calavo’s overall business, noting that it plays a crucial role alongside their retail operations.

The restaurant industry, according to Shore, faced significant challenges in recovering from the pandemic-induced shutdowns of spring 2020. Many establishments struggled to reopen, and some ultimately closed their doors permanently.

Despite these hurdles, Shore reported that Calavo’s foodservice business has rebounded to pre-COVID levels. He explained that from a supplier’s perspective, the dynamics of serving the restaurant industry are similar to those of the retail market. Calavo works with a diverse range of clients, from large foodservice distributors and major restaurant chains to smaller wholesalers and independent eateries. Their sales strategy is heavily focused on developing tailored programs, mirroring their approach to retail trade.

As the avocado market looks ahead to the remainder of 2024, the industry’s reliance on Mexico’s crop and the continued recovery of the foodservice sector will be key factors in shaping the market’s trajectory. While the outlook is cautiously optimistic, Shore and other industry leaders remain vigilant, aware that the market’s inherent unpredictability could still influence the months to come.