Heavy rains and decade-long grower investments in new plantings contribute to an optimistic outlook for the 2025 California avocado harvest, despite potential environmental challenges.
The 2025 avocado crop in California is expected to see a notable increase in size compared to recent years, thanks to a combination of favorable weather conditions and significant grower investments over the past decade. This forecast is driven by a higher fruit set observed across multiple growing regions, indicating a potentially larger harvest, although certain factors could still impact the final outcome.
In the past few seasons, heavy rains in 2023 and 2024 initially caused smaller-than-usual crops and delayed harvests. However, these same rains also provided essential benefits to both soil and tree health, which are contributing to the improved outlook for 2025.
California Avocado Commission Vice President of Marketing, Terry Splane, expressed optimism, stating, “The Commission is very enthusiastic about the possibility of larger crops in the near future.” However, Splane also urged caution, noting that environmental conditions such as heatwaves, wind, or frost could affect the outcome. “It’s just simply too early to know for sure,” he added.
This increase in projected crop size is not only due to favorable weather but also because of the significant efforts by California avocado growers to enhance their operations. Over the past decade, many growers have expanded their avocado acreage, replaced older trees with new plantings, and adopted more efficient, high-density planting models.
In some instances, these new plantings were necessary to replace trees lost to fires and other challenges. Between 2013 and 2023, approximately 3 million new avocado trees were planted in California, averaging about 265,000 new trees annually.
In addition to expanding their orchards, growers have focused on improving the quality and resilience of their crops. This includes the introduction of various avocado rootstocks and varieties, as well as the implementation of operational enhancements aimed at increasing per-acre yield. These efforts have begun to pay off, with overall yields per acre trending upward in recent years.
Looking ahead to next season, the California Avocado Commission (CAC) plans to build on the momentum by expanding its 2024 advertising program. This initiative, which highlights the unique quality of locally grown and sustainably farmed California avocados, aims to further differentiate California’s avocados in the marketplace. The Commission’s efforts will focus on promoting these advantages through strategic marketing efforts that emphasize the premium nature of California avocados.
The Commission is also gearing up for the International Fresh Produce Association Global Produce and Floral Show, to be held in Atlanta, where representatives will engage with current and potential retail partners. During the event, CAC representatives will showcase the upcoming crop and discuss opportunities for customized retailer programs. Splane expressed excitement about these discussions, noting, “Our team is looking forward to meeting with both loyal and prospective California avocado customers at the show… Merchandising responsibly grown, premium California avocados in season benefits retailers and their shoppers.”
Founded in 1978, the California Avocado Commission plays a vital role in promoting the state’s avocado industry. With roughly 3,000 growers across California, the Commission’s mission is to enhance the market position of California avocados through strategic advertising, public relations, and industry collaboration. California avocados are known for being ethically sourced, sustainably grown, and locally farmed to ensure premium quality and freshness.
