Mexico leads current lime imports, but drought and seasonal factors in Peru and Mexico could drive up prices by winter.

Lime supplies in the U.S. are currently stable, with Mexican imports significantly contributing to the market in recent weeks.

“Mexican fruit has come in pretty heavy in the last two to three weeks,” reports Dax Cooke, head of sales for Farm Direct Partners.

This influx has eased concerns about availability, especially as Mexico has outperformed other lime-producing regions in volume. While Colombia is also seeing solid output, its exports to the U.S. depend largely on the economic feasibility of pricing, which currently favors Mexican limes.

Peru, however, faces more complex challenges this season. Drought conditions have led to irrigation limitations and tighter water regulations, particularly in northern Peru.

According to Cooke, reduced rainfall has left reservoir systems lower than usual, which will likely diminish Peru’s lime output in the near future. The water scarcity and regulatory constraints on irrigation are expected to create a supply gap that may impact the U.S. market.

Demand for limes, typically lower in the fall, is also contributing to the current stability in pricing. This seasonal lull in demand is expected, as it tends to soften before the holiday season.

“Demand is on the lower side–not unusual given it normally softens around this time of year,”

Cooke explains, although interest in limes is expected to pick up as Thanksgiving approaches.

The sizing of limes is also playing a role in the current market dynamics. Retailers are increasingly interested in smaller-sized fruit, which is now more available thanks to fresh crop cycles in Mexico.

Initially, the industry anticipated a shortage of smaller limes, but Cooke confirms that smaller fruit is emerging as new areas move into production. This comes after several weeks where larger limes dominated the supply.

Pricing for limes is predicted to remain steady in the coming weeks, though regional variations exist. As Cooke notes, prices differ somewhat between the East Coast and the West Coast, with each region experiencing unique supply dynamics due to logistics and demand.

Looking to the future, Colombia may see favorable conditions, particularly in the upcoming winter months.

A drier-than-normal growing season has resulted in high-quality Colombian fruit with fewer issues and an ample distribution of limes on trees. “The cycle going into winter should be good,” Cooke observes, noting that Colombia’s typical high rainfall often presents challenges that this season has avoided. This unexpected dry spell has contributed to a strong harvest that will help offset Peru’s anticipated shortages.

On the other hand, Peru’s lower production levels may intensify the pressure on both Colombian and Mexican suppliers. Mexico, in particular, has faced a volatile year, as drought conditions earlier in the season impacted lime cycles from May and June, resulting in supply disruptions in subsequent months.

Additional rainfall from hurricane season raised concerns for tree health, although these effects won’t be seen in the next crop cycle but may emerge in the one after that.

Given these supply pressures, there is potential for Mexican limes to become more costly as winter progresses. “I think Mexican fruit has the potential to be very expensive because of the short supply during winter months, mid-January-February going into the normal season in April,” Cooke anticipates, forecasting a turbulent period for Mexican lime pricing in early 2025.

As noted in industry reports, Mexico, Colombia, and Peru each face unique challenges and opportunities in lime production. While Mexico is currently providing a steady supply, future weather-related and agricultural factors could lead to a more volatile market, especially as the U.S. heads into peak lime demand early next year.